Price to Win (PTW)

A competitive pricing analysis process that models likely competitor costs to determine the price point needed to win a contract while remaining profitable.

Price to Win (PTW) is both a discipline and a specific deliverable in government contracting. As a discipline, it is the process of modeling competitor pricing to identify what bid is most likely to win. As a deliverable, it is the target price band your proposal should hit to be competitive — neither so high that you lose the competition nor so low that performance becomes unprofitable.

Why PTW Analysis Matters

The government evaluates both technical quality and price. A technically excellent proposal priced significantly above the competition will lose in most best value evaluations and always loses under LPTA. A proposal priced below actual cost creates serious performance and legal exposure. PTW analysis defines the competitive band and prevents both failure modes.

The Analysis Process

PTW modeling involves estimating competitor labor rates, overhead and G&A structures, fee targets, staffing assumptions, and any incumbent pricing advantages or disadvantages. Output is a range of likely winning prices with a recommended target and a floor below which the work becomes unprofitable. This analysis feeds directly into staffing decisions, teaming choices, and subcontracting strategy, not just the pricing volume.

Public Data Sources

Useful public sources include FPDS-NG for historical award amounts, publicly available GSA Schedule pricelists for labor rate benchmarks, BLS Occupational Employment Statistics for market rate comparisons, and DCAA audit report summaries for overhead rate intelligence on large DoD contractors.

When to Start

PTW analysis should begin during the capture phase, before the RFP is released. Early estimates allow you to test whether your staffing model and team composition can produce a competitive price. Final refinement happens after the RFP confirms labor categories, page limits, and evaluation criteria. Starting after the RFP drops leaves too little time to make meaningful strategy adjustments.